Outliers are Interesting, but They Rarely Matter

A troubling statement makes us want to think of exceptions to it that would prove that statement to be wrong.

“Outliers are interesting, but they rarely matter,” is a troubling statement, and you may already be thinking of exceptions to it. But it remains true nonetheless.

This second statement is also true. “If there were no outliers, there would be no new inventions, no innovations, no progress. We would be trapped forever in the status quo.”

These seemingly contradictory statements can both be true because there are two kinds of outliers.

Leonardo da Vinci made marvelous art and filled fabulous sketchbooks with his insightful ideas, but he didn’t really change anything. He was just an interesting outlier whose mind was ahead of his time.

Rare is the outlier who throws a pebble into the ocean of time and shifts the world off its axis. Electricity is harnessed. Computers are invented. Someone connects them and now everyone knows everything all the time.

“What distinguishes the past from the present is not biology, nor psychology, but rather technology. If the world has changed, it is because we have changed the world.”

– Ezra Klein & Derek Thompson in their new book, Abundance

Technology changes the world, but persuasion changes hearts and minds.

I am an ad writer.

When I was in my 20s, I was told,

“People never change their mind. If you give a person the same information they were given in the past, they will make the same decision they made in the past. When a person appears to have ‘changed their mind,’ what they have really done is made a new decision based on new information.*”

Ten years later I realized that those people were trying to use logic to create “persuasion technology.” Their mistake was assuming that people make their decisions logically. But people do not trust new information when it disagrees with their belief system.

New information may allow you to win the argument, but it rarely wins the heart.

And a person convinced against their will, remains unconvinced, still.

Wash away the opinions, bravado, and fluff, and you will find that most people are NOT seeking new information. They are seeking identity reinforcement.

Bertrand Russell was a mathematician and a logician. He was awarded the Nobel Prize in Literature eight years before I was born.

He said,

“If a man is offered a fact which goes against his instincts, he will scrutinize it closely, and unless the evidence is overwhelming, he will refuse to believe it. If, on the other hand, he is offered something which affords a reason for acting in accordance with his instincts, he will accept it even on the slenderest evidence.”

When your goal is persuasion, don’t begin with new information. Begin by agreeing with what they already believe. Meet them where they are. Only then can you hope to lead them to where you want them to go.

Abraham Lincoln knew that persuasion is easier when you begin at a point of mutual agreement.

“If you would win a man to your cause, first convince him that you are his sincere friend. Therein is a drop of honey that catches his heart, which, say what you will, is the greatest high-road to his reason, and which, when once gained, you will find but little trouble in convincing his judgment of the justice of your cause.” – Abraham Lincoln

Lincoln knew that if you win the heart, the mind will follow. The mind will always create logic to justify what the heart has already decided.

Abraham Lincoln understood relational marketing, which is the art of changing the beliefs of a person by shifting their perspective a little, rather than by introducing new facts.

Do you want to persuade? Find an existing belief that you can agree with. Agreeing with your customer’s belief is far more effective than trying to convince them to accept new information that contradicts what they feel is true.

When you ask a person to accept new information that will destroy their belief, you are asking them to admit they have been a fool.

Relational ad writers learn to ignore the contrarians who say, “No one will be persuaded by your ad.” When these outliers say “no one,” what they really mean is, “Me and my friend.”

Outliers never speak for the majority. This is why they are called “outliers.”

“Outliers are interesting, but they rarely matter,” is the perspective of every relational ad writer.

Most ads are not written to persuade; they are written not to offend. But those watered-down ads don’t have enough horsepower to pull a fat kid off the toilet! A persuasive ad will turn that kid into an astronaut.

Persuasive ads move people, but not everyone will be moved in the direction that you want them to go. Don’t let this bother you.

Outliers don’t matter, because you don’t need to win the hearts of everyone.

You only need to win the hearts of the majority.

Roy H. Williams

* Those people from my 20’s would have spoken the truth if they had said, “People never change their mind. If a person maintains the same perspective they had in the past, they will make the same decision they made in the past. When a person appears to have ‘changed their mind,’ they are usually just looking at the old information from a new perspective.” Don’t try to change the information. Just illuminate that old information from a new angle. Speak to the heart, not the mind.

Ken Banta believes there are times for “short-term thinking” and right now is one of those times. In this week’s conversation with roving reporter Rotbart, Ken explains why it is a mistake to create a corporate plan that projects three, five, or ten years into the future. Ken Banta believes that leaders should focus on the immediate horizon. Technology and world events are evolving at breakneck speed, so forecasting the future is like trying to predict the location the next lightning strike. Take a listen to this week’s episode at MondayMorningRadio.com and see if you agree.