In the Wilderness, You Meet an Old Man

The pivotal moments in our lives are rarely announced with trumpets and fanfare.

But wouldn’t it be great if they were?

“Hello, this is God speaking. You’re at an inflection point in your life and although you don’t suspect it, the wisdom you’re about to receive from that old man over there is going to empower you to achieve things you never imagined. So pay attention, okay? This is a really big moment. Don’t let it slip past you.”

No, that doesn’t happen. Not the voice, anyway.

But the moment definitely happens.

We just don’t realize it until years later.

You are Frodo Baggins. You are on a journey. The old man you meet in the woods is Gandalf. He will equip you with what you need.

You are Luke Skywalker. You are on a journey. The old man you meet in the woods is Obi Wan Kenobi. He will equip you with what you need. For now.

Later, you face challenges for which Obi Wan did not equip you. You are lost in the woods again. You meet another old man. His name is Yoda. He is funny and small but pay attention to him. He will equip you with what you need.

Now you are you.

You are about to meet an old man in the woods. His name is Warren Buffett.

I’m going to pretend to be God, okay?

Don’t laugh. I’m doing this for you.

“You’re at an inflection point in your life and the wisdom you’re about to receive is going to empower you to achieve things you never imagined. So pay attention, okay? This is a really big moment. Don’t let it slip past you.”

“I was genetically blessed with a certain wiring that’s very useful in a highly developed market system where there’s lots of chips on the table, and I happen to be good at that game. Ted Williams wrote a book called The Science of Hitting and in it he had a picture of himself at bat and the strike zone broken into, I think, 77 squares. And he said if he waited for the pitch that was really in his sweet spot he would bat .400 and if he had to swing at something on the lower corner he would probably bat .235. And in investing I’m in a ‘no called strike’ business which is the best business you can be in. I can look at a thousand different companies and I don’t have to be right on every one of them, or even fifty of them. So I can pick the ball I want to hit. And the trick in investing is just to sit there and watch pitch after pitch go by and wait for the one right in your sweet spot. And if people are yelling, ‘Swing, you bum,’ ignore ’em. There’s a temptation for people to act far too frequently in stocks simply because they’re so liquid. Over the years you develop a lot of filters. But I do know what I call my ‘circle of competence’ so I stay within that circle and I don’t worry about things that are outside that circle. Defining what your game is – where you’re going to have an edge – is enormously important.”

– Warren Buffett, in the 2017 documentary, Becoming Warren Buffett

You become self-aware when you realize what is – and what is not – in your circle of competence.

Most people are not self-aware.

Warren Buffett is acutely self-aware.

“But I do know what I call my ‘circle of competence’ so I stay within that circle and I don’t worry about things that are outside that circle.”

Warren, do you have any last words of wisdom for my friend?

“Defining what your game is – where you’re going to have an edge – is enormously important.”

That was a big moment.

Don’t let it slip past you.

Roy H. Williams

PS – ‘The old man you meet in the woods’ is, as often as not, a woman.

PPS – “Intuition becomes increasingly valuable in the new information society precisely because there is so much data.” – John Naisbitt